When will Nifty fall? Part Year 2021

When you are into technical analysis so deep, that the pivot points, highs/lows, the fib ratio to which price has fallen and the extension to which it jumped back, seems to like telling their own stories.
Similar was with me, when I was looking at Nifty chart as per my normal routine for the intra-day and weekly setup.
I was checking the all-time chart of Nifty like how Nifty was actually climbing till the price it is being traded today i.e.14984.55 (futures).
It is very interesting. I was plotting my historical prices, checking for where the market will be heading towards. We can see some halt at the price level of 15270–15524(highest price), which technically amounts to a resistance, right?!
So I checked the peaks and troughs i.e. the highest peak and the lowest low it was making on a monthly chart.
Interestingly, every time it make a high, it retraces back till .382, then .50 and if we nullify the Covid lock-down effect then .618 fib level.
And from such retracement, it surged till 1.13 fib level before it retraces again.
If we limit the fall of 2020 till 0.618 Fib, then the price range which is acting as the resistance now, i.e. May 2021, it indicates a pending retracement.
In coming time, before we can say a “crash” crash, Nifty will be trading at 18k without any doubt, if we believe in numbers.
But before that, it is still to find some more lows, which if we go till .786 fib retracement, then it comes at 10318.05 precisely. Quite fancy number right? Also very scary for those who are bullish with this index.
But as it is all theoretical, we still need to witness what comes next on the day-to-day basis keeping in mind the present messed-up scenario due to the second wave. If the lock-down is evident, we can again see the plunge? Hopefully not in the manner it swipes off the players from the market. But definitely it shall be a careful affair to be taken care of.
How to safeguard yourself from this?
Take small steps till it clears the barrier of 15279

Don’t get confused about what chart I am sharing :)

Raksha K Soni

www.niftyanalysis.in